What polling data from 2025-2026 shows current levels of Scottish public support for independence from the United Kingdom?

Scottish independence polling from 2025-2026 shows the country remains closely split on whether to leave the United Kingdom. Multiple surveys by organisations such as YouGov, Ipsos, Norstat and Survation, each typically sampling around 1,000 adults with a margin of error of about ±3 per cent, put support for Yes between 42 and 48 per cent when undecided voters are excluded. No usually edges ahead, though the gap often falls within that margin of error, meaning results can shift with small changes in turnout or question wording.

A referendum is a direct public vote on one specific question, and current data suggests neither side has a sustained majority. The cost-of-living crisis ranks as the top voter concern, while constitutional questions divide people more evenly. Some polls indicate pro-independence parties could do well in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, yet this does not automatically mean majority backing for leaving the UK.

For teenagers, this matters because any future vote would shape the economy, job market, and public services you will rely on as adults. Four in ten voters in recent Ipsos data say they could still change their minds, so campaigns and turnout will likely decide the outcome rather than any sudden swing in opinion. Both sides present strong arguments about sovereignty and stability, and the figures remain too close to predict a clear result.

Scottish independence remains one of the most significant constitutional questions facing the United Kingdom, with public opinion polling serving as a key indicator of democratic sentiment and potential pathways for constitutional change. Data from 2025-2026, drawn from multiple reputable polling organisations including YouGov, Ipsos, Norstat, Survation and Statista, provides a snapshot of current attitudes. These surveys typically ask respondents whether they would vote Yes or No in a hypothetical referendum on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom. The period coincides with preparations for the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, where the SNP has framed a majority as a potential mandate for further constitutional action. Polling reveals a persistently divided electorate, with support for independence fluctuating narrowly around the 42-48 per cent range. This analysis examines the evidence neutrally, considering methodological variations, regional differences and the broader context of devolution under the Scotland Act 1998, without endorsing any constitutional outcome.

Recent polling from Norstat for The Sunday Times in January and February 2026 recorded Yes support at approximately 42-48 per cent when excluding undecided respondents, with No remaining marginally ahead in most samples of around 1,000 adults. These figures align closely with Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor data from May 2026, which indicated a similarly balanced split alongside separate questions on which party would best protect voters’ interests. Statista’s aggregation of 2026 surveys shows Yes support ranging between 42.5 per cent and 52 per cent across different fieldwork periods, highlighting modest volatility rather than decisive movement. YouGov’s Scottish Political Snapshot for Spring 2026 notes that voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament continue to be coloured by independence preferences, with pro-independence parties collectively competitive but not demonstrating overwhelming dominance.

Survation’s analysis emphasises that the cost of living remains the dominant electoral issue, while independence continues to split the electorate evenly. This finely balanced position is echoed in Ipsos findings that four in ten voters say they may still change their minds before any future referendum. Bella Caledonia and The National, drawing on the same underlying data, project a possible pro-independence majority in the 2026 Holyrood election, yet caution that this does not automatically translate into majority support for independence itself. National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) longitudinal data adds historical perspective, showing that Scotland is more divided on constitutional preferences in 2026 than immediately after devolution in 1999, when 59 per cent favoured the existing settlement.

Methodological factors influence results. Different pollsters employ varying question wordings, turnout weighting and treatment of undecided voters, producing small but noticeable divergences. Sample sizes typically range from 1,000 to 1,500, yielding margins of error of approximately ±3 per cent. GB-wide YouGov tracking from 2019-2026 illustrates that English and Welsh attitudes towards Scottish independence have remained relatively stable, with limited enthusiasm for replicating Scottish-style devolution in England. These patterns suggest that any future referendum would likely be decided by turnout and campaign dynamics rather than a decisive underlying shift in opinion. Constitutional principles of popular sovereignty, as articulated in the Claim of Right and subsequent parliamentary reports, underscore the importance of clear and sustained majorities before fundamental change, a threshold current polling does not yet demonstrate.

Policy options such as granting a Section 30 order for a potential 2028 referendum or maintaining the current devolution settlement present clear trade-offs between accommodating expressed democratic aspirations and preserving legal and fiscal stability within the Union. Implementation challenges include securing cross-party consent at Westminster, managing economic uncertainty over currency and borders, and addressing voter volatility tied to living standards rather than constitutional identity alone. Empirical evidence thus indicates neither decisive momentum nor outright rejection, leaving outcomes contingent on future events and turnout.