What are the current levels of public support in Scotland for independence from the United Kingdom according to the most recent polls?

Public support for Scottish independence remains a central issue in UK constitutional debates, reflecting ongoing tensions around devolution, national identity, and the distribution of powers between Westminster and Holyrood. As Scotland marks a decade since the 2014 referendum, recent polling data provides insight into voter sentiment amid economic pressures, Brexit legacies, and shifts in party performance. This analysis examines the most recent surveys to assess current levels of backing for separation from the United Kingdom, while considering implications for democratic accountability and constitutional stability. Support has proven dynamic rather than static, influenced by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, UK government leadership changes, and Scottish parliamentary elections. Understanding these trends is essential for evaluating the feasibility of future referendums and the broader framework of the Scotland Act 1998, which governs devolved competencies. By drawing on multiple polling organisations and contextual reports, this review highlights patterns without presupposing outcomes on the constitutional question itself.

Recent polling indicates that support for Scottish independence continues to fluctuate within a relatively narrow band, typically between 45% and 54% when excluding undecided respondents. According to YouGov's Scottish political snapshot from November 2025, backing has recovered from a ten-year low of 41% recorded in August following the Scottish National Party's weaker performance in the prior general election. This rebound aligns with observations from the Institute for Government, which notes that neither Yes nor No has secured a decisive or sustained lead over recent years, with peak support for independence occurring around 2020 before a subsequent decline. A Norstat poll commissioned by The Times and referenced by Believe in Scotland showed independence rising six points to 54%, prompting some campaigners to discuss potential supermajorities when layering additional wellbeing economy questions onto the survey. However, such supplementary framing may reflect specific organisational priorities rather than neutral measurement.

Ipsos data underscores the role of UK political leadership in shaping attitudes, with 76% of Scots expressing dissatisfaction with then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson's performance—the lowest rating recorded by the firm in Scotland. This dissatisfaction correlates with periods of elevated independence support, though causation remains complex and intertwined with broader governance perceptions. The Centre for the Study of the Nations (Sotn) highlights persistent activist pressure within and beyond the SNP for a second referendum, often justified by reference to the UK's European Union exit as a material change in circumstances. Academic analyses from UK in a Changing Europe suggest that educational divides, once pronounced, have narrowed since 2014, with graduate and non-graduate support converging around 50-54% in later surveys.

Historical polling compiled by Wikipedia and Electoral Calculus further illustrates volatility. A September 2022 Delta poll recorded 42% Yes against 47% No, consistent with post-referendum patterns where constitutional preferences have not polarised decisively. Parliamentary records from the Scottish Parliament note the tenth anniversary of the 2014 vote in 2024, emphasising high democratic engagement without resolving the underlying question of mandate for further plebiscites. Voting intention data from YouGov in May 2026 shows a fragmented party landscape, with pro-independence parties collectively competitive but not dominant, indirectly informing referendum prospects.

From a governance perspective, these polling trends raise questions of administrative effectiveness and constitutional principles. Sustained support near parity could complicate efforts to secure cross-party consensus on fiscal devolution or intergovernmental relations, as outlined in reports from the House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee. Conversely, the absence of a clear majority in most recent surveys may reinforce arguments for maintaining the current devolution settlement unless a durable shift emerges. Perspectives from centre and left-leaning outlets differ in emphasis: some stress potential for growth under favourable economic narratives, while others highlight structural limits tied to risk aversion among older and rural voters. Overall, the evidence points to resilient but not overwhelming backing for independence, underscoring the need for any future constitutional process to prioritise clarity, fairness, and broad legitimacy.

Current polling suggests Scottish independence support hovers around 48-54% in the latest readings, demonstrating continued volatility without a decisive breakthrough. This pattern carries implications for democratic accountability, as repeated narrow margins may test public trust in referendum processes and intergovernmental dialogue. Looking ahead, sustained monitoring of trends alongside economic and political developments will be vital to inform measured constitutional responses that uphold both unionist and nationalist positions within established legal frameworks.